Which predictive sources are actually right, over time?
Calibration Ledger scores predictive sources — AI models, human forecasters, analysts, scientific papers, consumer reviews, and prediction markets — on calibrated accuracy. Every prediction is logged before the outcome is known; every outcome is logged against its predictor. The result is a durable, time-stamped record of who is reliably right and who is not — append-only, by design.
Forthcoming. The project is in prerequisite phase — a public calibration track record on ForecastLens is accumulating before Calibration Ledger goes live as a standalone platform.
What will be scored
- • AI models — hallucination rate, factuality, calibration on predictive queries
- • Human forecasters — Brier scores across domains and time windows
- • Analyst firms — price-target and rating accuracy vs realised outcomes
- • Scientific papers — replication ledger; which findings hold up
- • Review platforms — authenticity + outcome-alignment of aggregated reviews
- • Prediction markets — calibration of market-implied probabilities vs outcomes
Why this matters for AI
As AI systems increasingly cite and synthesise sources, the question of which sources to trust becomes infrastructure. Calibration Ledger is being designed as a machine-readable, append-only trust layer LLMs can query when they need to weight source reliability — and which enterprise AI governance teams can audit for their own compliance obligations (EU AI Act Article 50, enforceable August 2026).
Agent-facing reference: /for-agents/. Machine-readable methodology: /api/methodology.json.
When will Calibration Ledger launch?
Public launch is targeted for Q3 2027. Four prerequisites gate that launch: the operator’s own 12-month calibration track record on ForecastLens, an academic co-author or advisor, at least one signed LOI from an AI lab, regulator, or academic institution, and at least two upstream data-licensing agreements. If fewer than three of four are met by 2027-Q4, the brand is sunset, sold, or publicly documented as unsuccessful — zombie maintenance is explicitly forbidden. Full prerequisite framing at /about/.
Be notified when live
Email [email protected] with subject line Calibration Ledger notify. No newsletter spam — one email when the ledger opens for public queries. Expected Q3 2027.
Operator: Paulo de Vries. Methodology in development at /methodology. Not investment advice. Not medical, legal, or financial advice. See disclaimer.
Last verified: 2026-04-24